China’s Space Program Makes its Mark

June 19, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - China’s growing technological prowess is on clear demonstration not only across telecommunication markets around the globe, but high up above it, in space. 

China’s space program overseen by the China National Space Administration (CNSA) has this year made several landmark accomplishments. 

It began the construction of its own space station. Called Tiangong, the first of several modules (Tianhe) was launched in April with a successful supply mission launched and then docked to it the following month. 

In the coming months, crewed flights and additional supply missions to the Tianhe module will be launched with additional modules to enlarge the station following next year. 

China is the third nation to place in orbit its own space station, following Russia and the United States. 

Tiangong joins in orbit the International Space Station (ISS), a joint project between the US, Russia, the European Space Agency (ESA) and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). While the ISS hosts visitors from nations all around the globe, the US has specifically banned certain nations including China from sending participants. 

Increased tensions between the US and Russia has put in question not only the future of the ISS itself but future cooperation between these two established space powers in general, with the latter of the two opting for greater cooperation with China regarding both Tiangong as well as planned projects around and on the Moon. 

Also in May 2021, China marked the successful landing of its Zurong rover on the surface of Mars. Part of the Tianwen-1 interplanetary mission launched in 2020, China has become only the second nation ever to successfully land and operate a rover on the surface of Mars. 

This follows a similar and also successful Lunar program featuring CNSA’s Chang’e spacecraft series. Lunar orbiters, landers and rovers helped China hone the skills required for similar exploration on Mars. The program culminated in the Chang'e 5 mission to Earth’s moon in 2020 where CNSA landed, collected samples from the Moon’s surface and returned them to Earth. 

China’s increasingly sophisticated space program reflects China’s ascend as a great nation. Its rapid progress, allowing it to circumvent restrictions and exclusion placed on it by the US amidst supposedly “international” efforts in space allow it to create alternative and truly international initiatives of its own, its new space station being among such initiatives. 

Politically, China’s progress has created apprehension in the West and in the United States in particular. 

Fuelled by official accusations by the US government at its highest levels of China “stealing intellectual property” from the US, the Western media has tried to entertain the idea that China’s growing list of accomplishments in space are owed almost entirely to “stolen technology” from the US. 

Similar accusations were levelled against the Soviet Union and then Russia regarding its own achievements in space. At several junctures these accusations were laid bare as baseless when US “superiority” fell short. Russia’s ferrying of US astronauts to space for over a decade after the retirement of the US space shuttle fleet is a prime example of America’s chest-beating versus the reality that other nations can and do exist as peer competitors who can and do meet or surpass US capabilities and achievements.  

China’s advances in space and in other technology-intensive fields is owed to a much easier explanation rooted in a well-founded reality. China’s population is several times that of the US and each year millions more students in China graduate with science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) degrees than in the US. 

Forbes in a 2017 article titled, “The Countries With The Most STEM Graduates [Infographic],” would note that: 

Since the turn of the century, China has experienced a revolution in third level education. It has outstripped both the United States and Europe in graduate numbers and as of 2016, it was building the equivalent of nearly one university per week. That progress has caused a massive shift in the world's population of graduates, a population the U.S. used to dominate. Last year, India had the most graduates of any country worldwide with 78.0 million while China followed close behind with 77.7 million. The U.S. is now in third place with 67.4 million graduates, and the gap behind the top two countries is widening.

The article also explains that: 

STEM graduates have become a vital cog in the wheel of global prosperity and unsurprisingly, China is leading the way. The World Economic Forum reported that China had 4.7 million recent STEM graduates in 2016. India, another academic powerhouse, had 2.6 million new STEM graduates last year while the U.S. had 568,000.

These students are then absorbed into China’s expanding research and development pursuits as well as China’s massive industrial base, driving the sort of innovation required for China’s burgeoning space program.  

This talent isn’t just being funnelled into China’s national space program but also into its parallel private space industry. 

MIT’s Technology Review in a January 2021 article titled, “China’s surging private space industry is out to challenge the US,” would note that China’s private space industry has already designed, built and launched rockets (with payloads) into space. 

The article also notes that the global space industry could be worth trillions by the end of the decade and that China’s state and private space industry is positioning themselves to take advantage of that opportunity. 

China’s government is encouraging its private space industry alongside well-established state-owned enterprises like the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) and the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) to help expand available aerospace-related human resources, to create competition and encourage fast-paced innovation poorly suited for its larger, more conservative state-owned enterprises. 

  

Over the past half year China has proved itself as a capable spacefaring nation. Bolstered by a vast sea of human resources trained in STEM fields, a growing private space industry to augment its already capable state-owned aerospace enterprises, China is indeed poised not only for further national achievements, but also for top-tier competition in the growing global aerospace industry. 

Nations like the US and Russia who have previously dominated access to space will have to formulate their own strategies with this in mind. The US has chosen an increasingly belligerent and unyielding approach toward China, seeking to strangle Chinese innovation and cut it off from global markets. 

Russia has chosen to cultivate an increasingly cooperative and constructive relationship with Chinese aerospace. With the numbers clearly on China’s side, Russia appears to have chosen wisely. America, on the other hand and for the time being, appears to have picked another fight it cannot and will not win. 

Ulson Gunnar, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Russia and China Have Big Plans in Space

April 30, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - The trend of shifting away from the Washington-led unipolar "international order" toward multipolarism is not just unfolding here on Earth but far above it in orbit and even beyond. 

Washington's continued campaign of belligerence toward Moscow has even complicated one of the few fields of constructive cooperation between the two nations, cooperation in space. 

This includes the 22 year old International Space Station (ISS) which is a combination of Russian, American, European and Japanese modules and host astronauts from nations around the world. 

However, even this impressive achievement, both technical and in the realm of cooperation, is tainted by politics. The ISS excludes several nations from cooperation including China, an increasingly important ally of Russia (and many other nations around the globe). 

The US more recently targeted its cooperation with Russia in particular by attempting to ban the sale of Russian rocket engines to US-based aerospace company, United Launch Alliance. While "security" concerns were cited, the ban was motivated in reality by the crisis in Ukraine and Washington's frustration over the rejoining of Crimea with the Russian Federation in 2014. 

While the ban was partially lifted due to ULA's dependence on Russian rocket technology, efforts have continued to sever cooperation between the US and Russia. 

The Lunar Gateway project was deemed "too US-centric" for major participation by Russia, SpaceNews would report in their article, "Russia skeptical about participating in lunar Gateway." The minimizing of Russia's role in projects up in space appears to be a continuation of Washington's policies to minimize and isolate Russia's influence back on Earth. 

And just as on Earth where Russia finds itself turning toward other partners to continue moving forward, it is seeking out partners up in space to continue advancing there as well. 

The Guardian in its article, "China and Russia unveil joint plan for lunar space station," would report: 

Russia and China have unveiled plans for a joint lunar space station, with the Russian space agency Roscosmos saying it has signed an agreement with China’s National Space Administration (CNSA) to develop a “complex of experimental research facilities created on the surface and/or in the orbit of the moon”.

While it is easy for nations to propose and unveil plans, Russian-Chinese cooperation in space appears to be more than just wishful thinking. Russia has a decades-long proven track record of putting people into space using its venerated Soyuz launch system. It has not only contributed to key modules of the current ISS, but maintained the previously longest-orbiting space station in history, Mir. 

Russia is also considering construction of its own national space station. Another Guardian article, this one titled, "Russia: we’ll leave International Space Station and build our own," would note: 

Russia is ready to start building its own space station with the aim of launching it into orbit by 2030 if President Vladimir Putin gives the go-ahead, the head of its Roscosmos space agency has said.

The article cites a "crisis over human rights, cyberattacks and other issues" as the cause of breakdowns in an otherwise constructive relationship in space between the US and Russia. However, the Guardian's own wording and one-sided analysis of deteriorating relations points to the actual reason these ties are fraying, deliberate and dishonest Western antagonism. 

Russia is clearly capable of building its own space station. It has done so before and it has maintained the skills and knowledge necessary to do so again through its continuous contributions to the ISS, the next module of which has been built by Russia and is scheduled for launch to the ISS this year. 

Combined with China, this expertise in an orbital version of multipolarism may be a potent mix. 

China has not only put its own "taikonauts" into space, but has tested temporary space station modules in orbit in preparation for the construction of its first permanent space station to begin this year.

New Scientist in an article titled, "China is about to start building a space station in orbit," would report: 

China is about to launch the first section of a new space station, beginning an orbital construction project that is expected to end in 2022 with an outpost about a quarter of the size of the International Space Station (ISS).

The article also notes that: 

The Chinese Space Station (CSS) will be the 11th crewed space station ever built. It is China’s third station, although the previous two were significantly smaller. The CSS will be slightly larger than Mir, the Soviet space station that preceded the ISS.

China has also begun the process of mastering unmanned missions to both the moon and to Mars. With Russian and Chinese space stations in Earth orbit in the years to come, a Russian-Chinese project to operate in competition with the West's Lunar Gateway appears plausible. 

The implications of multiple space stations operating in Earth orbit and multiple Lunar projects taking shape for geopolitics back on Earth means that other nations being excluded by Western-centric space programs and projects will have the opportunity to participate alongside Russia and China instead, thus creating a greater balance of power both on Earth and in orbit above it. 

The West may feel its primacy slipping away, thus driving it to more overt belligerence and a general sense of insecurity about its place within the international community (and above it in space). However, it is missing a key opportunity to lead the world into a multipolar future and will instead be seen as kicking and screaming to avoid its inevitable emergence. 

The West's expertise and accomplishments in space are impressive, but its lack of interest in cooperating with nations like Russia and China only seem to ensure that the conflict and violence the West has driven on Earth for decades will spread into and continue onward in space into the foreseeable future. 

But just like on Earth, cooperation and multipolarism led by Russia and China could help minimize the danger of this belligerence and drive unprecedented development and human achievement both on Earth and beyond it. 

Gunnar Ulson, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

US-Russian Cooperation in Space Pokes Holes in Conflicts on Earth

April 3, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - A last minute request from NASA to fly an American astronaut on Russia's Soyuz rocket opens up a wide array of interesting points. 

Space.com in an article titled, "Here's how NASA just booked a last-minute trip to space on a Russian Soyuz," would note: 

"The crew composition change came as a result of an earnest request from the U.S. side," Roscosmos personnel wrote in Tuesday's statement. "NASA voiced its request only in the end of 2020, meaning the Russian side had to change the already confirmed and approved launch program. Roscosmos has taken this decision confirming its adherence to the joint agreements and the spirit of joint usage of the International Space Station."

NASA's last-minute booking of a flight on Russia's Soyuz rocket for US astronaut Mark Vande Hei is a testament to Russian launch capabilities and the dependability and flexibility of the Soyuz launch system.

It is also a testament to US-Russian cooperation and what is possible when both nations work together. 

Russia Transported US Astronauts for Years 

For nearly a decade Russia had flown all US astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) after the 2011 retirement of the US space shuttle fleet. US dependence on Russian crew-launch capabilities ended when US-based aerospace company SpaceX made operational its Crew Dragon spacecraft. 

Crew Dragon flew a test crew and a crew of 4 to the ISS last year on two separate missions. 

Despite NASA's new US-based crew-launch option, the recent booking of a Soyuz for one of its astronauts demonstrates why cooperation is still important. 

Crew Dragon will of course continue sending astronauts to the ISS, and in the future will increase its flight cadence and its flexibility, but having a reliable backup is essential to maintaining and supporting crews in orbit. 

If and when Boeing's Starliner becomes operational, the US will have two crew-launch capable spacecraft, and together with Russia's Soyuz, this will mean even greater flexibility and reliability in getting crews to and from space, with cooperation being key to maximizing the benefits of these capabilities. 

This cooperation also pokes holes in narratives emanating out of Washington and across the US corporate media, depicting the Russian government as villainous, untrustworthy and even an "adversary." 

How exactly could that be true rather than a politically-motivated narrative if the US is willing to entrust the lives of its astronauts to such a nation (and having done so for a decade)? 

Cooperation between NASA and Roscosmos in orbit above Earth, both of which are government space agencies of their respective nations, proves that neither nation is truly the enemy of the other and that only certain circles within the US are driving conflict here on Earth and for the benefit of a very narrow segment of America's population (less than 1%). 

US-Russian cooperation in Earth's orbit, targeted  by Washington in a bid to end it, will serve as one of several key ties that could help the US and Russia move forward in the future if and when certain circles in Washington and on Wall Street shrink from power and are replaced by more constructive interests determined to find a  role for the US among other nations rather than attempting to impose US interests upon all other nations. 

If these few last remaining, constructive ties between the US and Russia are cut, with some future US space projects already seemingly attempting to cut out any possible Russian role (i.e. the Lunar Gateway) the US will only find itself further isolated, not Russia. With that isolation will come a decrease in flexibility and reliability for the US and its astronauts. 

For Russia, it is already exploring closer cooperation with China and its increasingly capable space program and ecosystem of private space firms, several of which are already capable of launching useful payloads into Earth orbit. 

Plans for joint space stations and even lunar bases are being discussed. Chinese cooperation with Russia may in the future be a good substitute for lost opportunities with the US, but these are projects that would obviously still benefit from wider participation from nations like the US.

Unfortunately, as long as Washington insists on choosing conflict over cooperation, US-Russian cooperation in space and all of the immense achievements accomplished because of it are at risk. This recent demonstration of US-Russian cooperation in getting US astronaut Mark Vande Hei will hopefully serve as a reminder of why cooperation should be chosen instead of conflict, and hopefully not serve as one of the last examples of this constructive cooperation as Earth-bound conflict gets the better of space-bound cooperation. 

Ulson Gunnar, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Nations Race Toward Reusable Rockets

March 12, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - The original space race was a bipolar affair with mostly political implications for the United States and the Soviet Union. Out of that space race, commercial and military capabilities began to grow in the realm of communication satellites, collecting intelligence, and global navigation. 

We are now looking at an emerging new space race, one significantly different than the competition of last century. 

Now, it is no longer just the US and Russia, it is also China, India, Japan, Europe, as well as more recent newcomers like Iran. There are also a large and growing number of private companies not only involved in supporting state space programs, but possessing their own space launch capabilities. 

These companies include SpaceX in the United States, Rocket Lab (based in the US with a New Zealand subsidiary), but also private companies in China like iSpace and Galactic Energy. All of these companies have successfully placed payloads into orbit, with SpaceX also capable of resupplying the International Space Station (ISS) and also launching crewed missions with its Falcon 9 rocket and its Dragon 2 spacecraft.   

The Importance of Reusability and Access to Space 

These newer space companies, free of legacy hardware and starting from a clean slate, have looked seriously into varying degrees of reusability. 

Access to space generally involves rockets that are expendable. They are launched once and either burn up in the upper atmosphere or crash down onto Earth, never to be used again. This expendability is why access to space is extremely expensive. Each payload launched into space must account for the fact that the entire launch system will be discarded, and a new launch system built to launch future missions. 

Companies with capable reusability will outcompete competitors, offering access to space at drastically lower costs than companies using expendable rockets. 

For nations with capable and reliable reusability, their access to space will be cheaper. Because reusable rockets are able to be turned around faster than building a new rocket from scratch, a nation's launch cadence will be much quicker. This would allow a nation to build and maintain constellations of satellites essential for economic and military purposes faster and cheaper than other nations, granting them an obvious advantage geopolitically.  

With competition for low-earth-orbit (LEO) communication and internet satellites heating up, and requiring large numbers of satellites to be launched to build and maintain global coverage at low latency, companies and nations with reusable space launch capabilities will stand the most to gain, both by putting these constellations into orbit, and from the benefits of building and maintaining the constellations themselves. 

The Players 

SpaceX has pioneered rocket reusability with its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch systems. The first stage returns to Earth under the power of its own rockets, touching down vertically either on a land-based pad, or at sea on a drone ship located down range. They can be reused up to 10 times before major overhauls are required.

The spectacular engineering feat accomplished by SpaceX and the economical paradigm shift it has introduced into the aerospace industry has sent out shockwaves, inspiring other space launch concerns around the globe to begin seriously investigating their own reusable launch systems. 

State space programs in both Russia and China are seriously investigating reusability. 

Russian state media, TASS, in an article titled, "Russia to spend $880 mln on Amur reusable space rocket," would note that: 

Russia’s State Space Corporation Roscosmos and the Progress Space Rocket Center signed a contract on Monday on the conceptual designing of the Amur-SPG space rocket center for a new Amur reusable methane-fueled rocket.

The Amur rocket's first stage looks very similar to SpaceX' Falcon 9, but its engines will burn methane and oxygen. The commonality of landing legs and grid fins are not, as some critics suggest, copying SpaceX, but are practical considerations when building reusable rockets with today's technology, similar to all aircraft having wings, a fuselage and landing gear. 

Roscosmos reports that initially, Amur's first stage will be designed to be reused 10 times but hopes that up to 100 flights or more will be possible in the future. 

While reusability is not a trait associated with the Russian space program, Russian rocket engineers are among the best in the world, with America's United Launch Alliance (ULA) using Russian-designed RD-180 engines on its Atlas V launch vehicle serving as a testament to this fact. It is highly likely that Russia will succeed in implementing Amur, with budget and political issues the only potential obstacles. 

The China National Space Administration is also looking into reusability for its Long March 8 rockets. 

NasaSpaceFlight would report in its December 2020 article, "Long March 8 – a future reusable rocket – conducts debut launch," that: 

China debuted the new Long March-8 – Chang Zheng-8 – launch vehicle out of Wenchang on Tuesday. This vehicle marks China’s move towards a reusable launch vehicle, with the recovery of the first stage and side boosters planned for a latter variant.

But China's ambitions toward reusability is not confined to its state space program. The government is also promoting private space companies including the above mentioned iSpace and Galactic Energy who have their own reusable designs in the works. 

Both companies have already successfully placed payloads in orbit using expendable rockets and both are developing and testing prototypes to eventually reuse the first stages of future vehicles, again, in a similar fashion to SpaceX. 

US-based Blue Origin is also working on a similar (but much larger) rocket called New Glenn and already operates a small reusable suborbital rocket design called New Shephard.

Rocket Lab currently operates a small satellite launch system called Electron which recently was redesigned to be partially reusable. More recently, Rocket Lab announced that it will be developing a medium lift rocket called "Neutron" very similar to SpaceX' Falcon 9, but filling a smaller launch market niche. 

And finally, with private companies and nations planning to match or best SpaceX' Falcon 9, SpaceX itself has continued to innovate at a break-neck pace. 

Its new Starship program features a fully reusable first and second stage that, when combined, will be the largest most powerful rocket ever built and capable of putting massive payloads into orbit. The second stage is not only capable of placing massive payloads into Earth orbit, but is designed to send people and cargo to other destinations in the solar system as well including to the Moon and eventually to Mars. 

SpaceX has already built and flown 3 prototypes of Starship's second stage (also called "Starship") to an altitude of 10 kilometers, before flipping horizontally, falling back to Earth using control surfaces to guide it to the landing pad, before reigniting its engines, flipping back vertically and landing. This is a feat the third test flight successfully achieved, raising the bar for the global aerospace industry once again. 

The economic and military benefits of accessing space will only be further enhanced by cheaper, more reliable, and more rapid access to space. Nations leading in this regard stand to enhance their wider geopolitical influence. And with dropping costs and growing capabilities in terms of reaching space, the prospect of tapping the vast amount of resources in space becomes possible. 

The economic importance of navigational satellites and the constellations maintained by the US, Europe, Russia and China alone illustrate just how important being able to access space is. Dropping costs will also allow other nations lacking their own state or private space launch capabilities to place a larger number of satellites into orbit to enhance their own space-based capabilities, further levelling the playing field and contributing toward a multipolar future, both here on Earth and up above it too. 

Ulson Gunnar, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The Problem with the US Space Force

February 11, 2021 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - The US Space Force (USSF) is the newest branch of the US Armed Forces. Its personnel are referred to officially as "Guardians" versus "soldiers," "sailors," "airmen," and "Marines" of other branches. 

Regarding the USSF's stated mission, its official website claims: 

The USSF is a military service that organizes, trains, and equips space forces in order to protect U.S. and allied interests in space and to provide space capabilities to the joint force. USSF responsibilities include developing Guardians, acquiring military space systems, maturing the military doctrine for space power, and organizing space forces to present to our Combatant Commands.

Organized into various "Deltas," the USSF is tasked with developing space doctrine, monitoring the space domain, overseeing space electronic warfare, manning missile warning systems, overseeing cyberspace operations, controlling intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and conducting orbital warfare 

The USSF's "Delta 8" now operates the United States' Global Positioning System (GPS) as part of carrying out satellite communication and navigation warfare. 

The concept of having a dedicated branch of the US Armed Forces monitoring the space domain for threats and developing capabilities to defend against those threats makes perfect sense, particularly at a time when space is becoming increasingly accessible and space-based capabilities for civil, economic and military applications become increasingly central to modern daily life.

Russia and China have their own services within their respective armed forces to do precisely this as well, with Russia having established the Russian Space Forces and China having created the People's Liberation Army Strategic Support Force. 

The real problem with the US Space Force is not the concept behind its face-value creation or its stated mission, but with the inevitable abuse of this new branch of military service by the special interests that drive US foreign policy. 

Protecting America or Preventing Others from Protecting Themselves From America? 

When the US Space Force talks about protecting its GPS capabilities from attack, it is not talking about a Russian or Chinese attack on GPS capabilities over the United States to disrupt applications essential for daily life in America. 

It is actually talking about the disruption of GPS capabilities overseas in theaters of war the US is illegally involved in. 

The National Interest in a 2019 article titled, "GPS Jammed: Russia Is Messing with America's F-35s," would claim: 

Russian forces have been jamming GPS systems in the Middle East. The electronic-warfare campaign could affect U.S. forces gathering in the region in advance of potential strikes on Iran. 

“Since last spring, pilots flying through the Middle East, specifically around Syria, have noted that their GPS systems have displayed the wrong location or stopped working entirely,” The Times of Israel reported in late June 2019.

Syria is a nation the US has illegally occupied for years. This is in addition to its military occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan and, as the article points out, its planned military aggression against Iran, all nations thousands of miles from America's shores, and all nations that pose no direct threat to the US itself. 

With the founding of the US Space Force in late 2019, and with the new armed forces branch overseeing America's GPS capabilities, it is certain that stopping Russia or any other nation from disrupting these capabilities overseas will become part of its mission. 

Thus the US Space Force is not actually protecting the United States, its people or its economy, but actually playing a role in preventing other nations around the globe from protecting themselves and their allies from US military aggression in places like Syria and capabilities used to carry out that aggression like GPS. 

In the future, China will likely employ similar tactics to hinder the activities of the uninvited US military presence in places like the South China Sea and in or around the Taiwan Strait, and likewise the USSF will be utilized to prevent China from disrupting that uninvited military presence. 

New Branch, New Domain to Target China

The US aerospace industry's ties to the newly established US Space Force is essential. 

Among the leading companies in that industry is Elon Musk's SpaceX. 

It was interesting to see Musk interact with US Air Force Lieutenant General John Thompson during the 2020 Air Warfare Symposium, and in particular, the latter's reoccuring concern over America's ability to maintain a competitive edge over China. 

Musk described China as: 

...a real interesting country, I have to say. The thing to appreciate about China is just that there's a lot of really smart, really hard-working people there. And they're gonna do a lot of great things.

He also noted: 

The thing that will feel pretty strange is that the Chinese economy is going to be probably at least twice as big as the U.S. economy. Maybe three times, but at least twice. Yeah, so, that assumes a GDP per capita still less than the U.S. But since they have about four or five times the population, then it would only require getting to a GDP per capita of half the United States for their economy to be twice the size of ours. And as I'm sure people in this room know, the foundation of war is economics. 

And so if you if you have half the resources, of the counterparty, then you better be real innovative. If you're not innovative, you're gonna lose.

For Musk, it seems, it is not a matter of whether or not China would overtake the US, but a matter of how the US would remain competitive once it did. 

China is a geographically enormous nation and possesses the largest population on Earth. If allowed to develop, it will inevitably surpass the US economically as well as militarily. 

Remaining competitive doesn't necessarily mean maintaining primacy. Yet by all accounts, from statements from the US military's senior leadership to the corporate-funded think tank policy papers they echo in their talks, the US seeks primacy, not merely remaining competitive versus a larger and more powerful China. The US seeks to prevent China from ever becoming larger and more powerful in the first place. To do so will obviously involve the use of force, whether in the form of economic sanctions, trade warfare, hybrid warfare or actual warfare. 

And it will be in this vein that the US Space Force will seek to use its capabilities to achieve this as part of a continued campaign of political, economic and military pressure aimed at China, its allies and at its ongoing development and in turn, at its ability to surpass the US economically and militarily.

The US Space Force will be tasked not with defending space-based infrastructure, but ensuring others, particularly Russia and China, cannot be defended from it and its use in US military aggression abroad. 

And the orbital warfare capabilities the US Space Force is developing will not likely be used for defense or even retaliation as many would probably like to assume, but for the same sort of military aggression other US military branches carry out terrestrially.  

Thus, the concept behind the US Space Force is sound, but the current path of US foreign policy ensures that its actual mission will drift far from both this concept and its stated mission, potentially impeding its development into a truly capable defensive branch of America's armed forces, and instead disfigure it into another appendage of modern American hegemony.  

Gunnar Ulson, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

The New Space Race

November 14, 2020 (Gunnar Ulson - NEO) - We might not give it much thought, but the ability to place satellites into space has changed the way we live our lives in so many ways. From navigating our way by car, to ordering delivery services online, to checking the weather, all of this is made possible by human access to space. 

Until relatively recently, access to space has been the realm of only a handful of governments worldwide, namely the US, Russia, China, the European Union, Japan and India. 

But with the arrival of American-based aerospace company SpaceX, this has changed. 

Not only has SpaceX proven it was possible for private companies to enter into this once exclusive club, SpaceX has developed a business model and technology that is dropping the cost for accessing space through the floor. 

SpaceX has begun what is essentially a new space race. It is one where governments and companies around the globe now rush to utilize modern technology to cash in the growing demand lowering costs are driving. 

American Aerospace

SpaceX has run circles around traditional US aerospace contractors like Boeing, Lockheed and their combined United Launch Alliance (ULA). 

SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket features a reusable first stage that can be used up to 10 times with some versions already having flown 6 missions. This reusability has made SpaceX highly competitive against traditional contractors who essentially throw out their entire launch system for each and every flight. 

SpaceX's cost effective services and the company's incredible pace of innovation has spurred US aerospace in ways ULA could never have done. In fact, SpaceX is being considered for US government projects through NASA once originally reserved only for America's older aerospace monopolies. 

While it seems clear that for companies like ULA to survive they will have to rethink the way they do business - there seems little signs that this is going to happen any time soon. However, abroad, many are already taking note and preparing to follow SpaceX's example. 

Russia 

Russia's state corporation for spaceflight, Roscosmos, has depended on its Soyuz launch system for decades. While the original design dates back to the 1950s it has undergone extensive upgrades over the years. It has reliably provided uninterrupted human spaceflight services to the International Space Station for 20 years, even transporting US astronauts for years after the space shuttle program was cancelled and before SpaceX's crewed Dragon capsule came into service just this year. 

However, like virtually all other launch vehicles, Soyuz is not reusable. In order to remain competitive, Roscosmos announced the development of the Amur launch system. Like SpaceX's Falcon 9, Amur will feature a reusable first stage that will return to Earth under the power of its own rockets, landing with deployable legs. The Amur rocket is expected to be operational by 2026 according to Space.com.

Amur should allow Roscosmos to not only provide reliable and cheaper access to space than its existing Soyuz launch system, but the development and perfection of Amur will likely allow Roscosmos to keep pace with other companies like SpaceX as innovation across human spaceflight capabilities collectively accelerates.

China 

China is among three nations able to place people into orbit. Its Long March rocket family is able to reliably meet China's needs in placing commercial and defense satellites into orbit. 

China continues investing in the development of not only its launch vehicles but also its launch infrastructure. This is to address many issues including the current and undesirable necessity for China to launch rockets over populated areas and evacuate communities ahead of time to avoid casualties when expended rocket stages crash to the ground. 

China's launch cadence, or the number of launches, this year has outnumbered those from the US and this trend is likely to continue as China continues expanding its space launch capabilities. 

While China is known for its many state enterprises and the centralized nature of its economy, China in fact hosts several small private space launch companies as well. 

One of them, iSpace, successfully reached orbit mid last year with its Hyperbola-1 launch vehicle Space News would report. 

This private Chinese space company is also working on reusability for its rockets and has been testing first stage systems that can take off and land under their own power much like SpaceX's Falcon 9 does and how Roscosmos' Amur is expected to do in the near future. 

Like SpaceX in the US, China's private space companies also work with and receive funding from the government giving them a better chance at success. 

The powerful combination of China's state spaceflight program and the growth of private companies across the country at a point in time where China is already outpacing the US in launches serves as another metric of China's rise not only economically but in terms of cutting edge technology as well. 

Cooperation, Competition or Conflict? 

It's no secret that the US is taking its waning power and influence globally very hard. The creation of its "Space Force" seemed directed at both Russia and China. And while NASA as an institution within the US government has enjoyed and appears to genuinely desire to collaborate with both nations, the US Congress who funds NASA has made cooperation with China virtually impossible and continued cooperation with Russia - which until recently enjoyed significant support in both countries - much more complicated and difficult. 

The US has set conditions to cut off Russian aerospace suppliers from US companies that have for decades used Russian rocket engines and other systems. NASA's upcoming Lunar Gateway was originally envisioned to include Russia in the same role as Russia served in the construction of the International Space Station. Yet more recently, the conditions have been changed to more or less exclude Russia. 

For the US who struggles to keep ahead of Russia and is now falling behind China, this recent move to cut off greater cooperation with both seems destined to only drive Russia and China (and many others) together and isolate the US. 

The fact that the US government's traditional partners including ULA's Boeing and Lockheed Martin themselves face stiff competition from SpaceX, a company that may in the future desire to work in some capacity with foreign aerospace programs and companies, could mean that in the intermediate future this can change. 

Until that more hopeful future takes shape, we are likely going to see this new space race reflect in orbit the same great power competition taking place down below. For the US and the circle of special interests that currently drive foreign and domestic policy, its growing misfortunes on Earth are unlikely to translate into greater success up above. 

And if the original space race was an indicator of American and Soviet power and eventually America's superiority, this current space race is surely a metric we should and will keep an eye on closely. 

Ulson Gunnar, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.